Battle of wits in Imo, Bayelsa and Kogi - The Contenders and Pretenders

The off season governorship election in Imo, Bayelsa and Kogi State scheduled for November 2023 will stand out as test case for INEC after the 2023 General Elections


November 11, 2023, is a day the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has scheduled for the governorship election in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi States. All 18 political parties would be fielding candidates in Kogi, 17 parties in Imo, while 16 political parties would field candidates in Bayelsa State. For the first time, two political parties would field female candidates in Balyelsa, one in Kogi, while the incumbent governor of Imo State, Senator Hope Uzodinma would this time run with a female as running mate.

The Imo State governorship election promises to be a two - pronged affair between the ruling party APC and 17 other political parties. The incumbent governor, riding at the back of 26 members of the Imo State House of Assembly, is expected to come up tops if current political calculations are anything to go by. However, some political watchers believe it is not going to be a walkover for the governor as some other political parties promise to give him a run for his money. Among the candidates likely to give the governor a push are Senator Athan Acho, the Labour Party candidate, Chief Uche Odunze. candidate of the NNPP, Major General Lincoln KJ Ogunewe of AA and Ejiogu Anthony of APGA.

Many believe that PDP, which for some time now has become the major opposition party in Imo State, may have lost its barking power. Thus, it is in view of the crises that have rocked the party since the emergence of Senator Samuel Anyanwu as the governorship candidate. It is believed that some eminent personalities and party big wigs have since turned their back against the party and its governorship candidate, whom many claim to be unpopular. Some even argue that most aggrieved members of PDP are surreptiously working for the success of Governor Hope Uzodimma behind the scene, to the detriment of their party’s candidate. Other candidates are considered as paper weights who may not pose any challenge to the front runners.

One common feature noticed in the geographical distribution of the governorship candidates is the Mbaise, which claims marginalisation in the scheme of things has the highest number of candidates. They include Major General LKJ Ogunewe of AA, Steve Onyekachi Nworga of ADP, Dr. John Okoroma of ADC, amongst others. In Bayelsa State, it is going to be a battle royale between the incumbent governor, Mr Duoye Diri of the PDP, the Labour Party candidate, Eradiri Udongmobofa and their APC counterpart, Timipre Sylva, himself a former governor of the state and immediate past minister for Petroleum Resources. Between these front runners, the result of the election could swing in any direction.

Political observers believe that Bayelsa election will be more of flexing of political muscle between the incumbent, Senator Duoye Diri and Timipre Sylva; while Labour party candidate may be a beneficiary of any fallout between the two gladiators. Unlike in most states, governorship election in Bayelsa state is not always determined by political party, but the personality of the candidate. What happened in 2019 where David Lyon of APC landslide victory was overturned by the Supreme Court is a testimony to that. For the candidates of other political parties like ADC, ZLP, and others, the best they could get is having a decent run for taking part in the election.

In Kogi State, the fight would be a straight battle between the candidate of the ruling party in the State, Ahmed Usman Ododo, and the PDP candidate, Senator Dino Daniel Melaye. Other candidates who are expected to push the front runners are Ilona Kingsley Idokko of APGA, Yakubu Murtala of the SDP, and Omale Samson Agada of YPP.

While it is not contestable that tribe have always been a major factor on who governs the mineral rich state, this coming election seem to have divided the people of the state more. The political situation in the state at present is that the people of Kogi East, Igala, which has produced three elected governors within the period of 24 years is clamouring for a return of power to the region; Kogi West, Okun, which has not been so lucky to have a democratically elected governor is angling to succeed Governor Bello, while the people of Kogi Central where the incumbent governor comes from are insisting on holding on to power. The battle line has been drawn, not only in Kogi state, but also in Imo and Bayelsa state. November 11 will decide.